Macro Monitor
Weekly financial crisis early-warning system tracking debt, credit, market structure, real economy, and systemic risk. Published every Monday.
Global Macro Monitor — W/E 21 April 2026
Tariff shock has transitioned from uncertainty to structural competitiveness drag
Read briefing →Global Macro Monitor — W/E 17 April 2026
The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents the most significant supply shock to the global oil market in history, with 20% of global supply disrupted
Read briefing →Global Macro Monitor — W/E 14 April 2026
The Strait of Hormuz closure represents a structural supply shock rather than a temporary disruption, with lasting impacts on global energy markets
Read briefing →Global Macro Monitor — W/E 12 April 2026
Read briefing →GMM Issue 3 — Liberation Day Cascade: Global Macro Stress Escalates to CRITICAL
Read briefing →Global Macro Monitor — W/E 1 April 2026
Liberation Day tariffs confirm worst-case trade scenario at Smoot-Hawley levels; private credit gate events trigger at Ares and Apollo; consumer confidence breaks below the GFC trough to 53.3 — three structural risks that were flagged as probable in prior weeks are now confirmed.
Read briefing →Macro Monitor — TL;DR Week of 30 March 2026
System stress at ELEVATED -> HIGH with zero bullish asset class scores: consumer confidence at a GFC-trough, a Hormuz supply disruption embedding a $15-20 oil premium, and private credit gate risk the most underpriced systemic trigger in the model.
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